And Then There Were Eight
The UEFA Champions League quarterfinal stage kicks off next week, and it’s hard to deny that we get to witness the battles of some of the strongest teams in Europe. World powerhouses FC Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain were handed stiff tests against Atlético de Madrid and Manchester City, respectively, while FC Bayern and Real Madrid were slightly more fortunate, and will face SL Benfica and VfL Wolfsburg.
The last three editions of the tournament have produced somewhat surprise finalists; will this year’s quarterfinal stage allow that trend to continue? Let’s take a look.
(Teams listed first are at home for the first leg)
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Real Madrid CF
One of last season’s most pleasant surprises in Germany, Wolfsburg have not exactly replicated their performances this season. However, they’re still a talented, attack-minded side capable of pulling off a shock result and hanging around with the best teams in the world. Dieter Hecking’s men have relied on the leadership of long-serving players like Ricardo Rodríguez and Naldo, and have benefitted from the pure talent of attackers like Julian Draxler and André Schürrle.
Real Madrid is a different animal from the average Bundesliga club, though, and will wholeheartedly challenge Wolfsburg’s backline. With the likes of Ronaldo up front, Modric in the middle, and Ramos in the back, the Galacticos seem to hardly have a weakness. On the field, they tend to make easy work of most opponents, but other top-quality teams can give them headaches. While Madrid will almost always be favored on paper, it would be silly to write off Wolfsburg already. Zinedine Zidane hasn’t exactly been spectacular as the first team manager (a position that was always going to be tough for him), and has notably struggled to get the best out of his team in the big games, especially away from the Bernabeu.
Should the Germans get off to a quick start in the home leg, we could have an upset on the cards. That being said, the smart money would certainly still go on Zidane & co. to progress to the semifinal.
Prediction: Real Madrid defeats Wolfsburg 3-2 on aggregate.
FC Bayern München vs. SL Benfica
After a near-miraculous comeback against a tough Juventus side, the Bavarians will be riding high heading into their matchup with the reigning Portuguese champions. Douglas Costa and Kingsley Coman have consistently terrorized defenses all season, even with world-class players such as Arjen Robben and Franck Ribéry frequently injured and unable to back them up. To add to that, the midfield and backline have been rock-solid, and really helped to lift the club into a comfortable 1st-place position in the Bundesliga table.
Luckily for anyone other than Bayern fans, Benfica’s motto will be “Anything you can do, I can do better.” Whether they can actually live up to that motto is a different story, but the fact of the matter is that they have really been just as dominant as Bayern over the past 18/24, albeit against weaker opposition. Like the Germans, the Portuguese club have attackers like Jonas and Nico Gaitán who can absolutely toy with opposing defenses, along with a veteran backline led by Luisão.
They are relatively unproven against the world’s best, though, and this Bayern squad is definitely one of the world’s best. Benfica would hold their own against many strong teams, but the Bavarians don’t seem likely to mess this one up.
Prediction: Bayern Munich defeats Benfica 5-2 on aggregate.
FC Barcelona vs. Atlético de Madrid
This is where it gets good.
Barcelona are hoping to be the first club in the Champions League era to repeat as winners, and most analysts would agree that they are again the favorites this time around. In fact, it’s truly difficult to envision a scenario in which any team in the world could beat them over two legs. In a one-off game in the middle of a La Liga season, maybe, but in a monumental matchup like this, you can bet that Luis Enrique’s men will be absolutely ready to play. The deadly Messi, Suárez, Neymar trio aren’t showing any signs of slowing down.
If any team could slow them down, though, it’s Atleti. Diego Simeone has somewhat been Barça’s kryptonite during his time as manager of the Colchoneros, using his philosophy of stout defensive organization to neutralize MSN to a certain extent. If healthy, Godín and Giménez can lead their team to a clean sheet against almost anyone, but will obviously be tested to the extreme against the world’s best.
Unfortunately, goals have been hard to come by for their attack; French attacker Antoine Griezmann is the only player in double figures for Atleti thus far this season. If Barça can manage even three goals over the two legs, they should be in good shape to advance, especially if they can use the first leg at Camp Nou to create some separation in the aggregate scoreline.
Prediction: FC Barcelona defeats Atlético de Madrid 3-1 on aggregate.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester City FC
El Cashico. Oil Classico. El Plastico. The Abu Derby.
However you spin it, this matchup will tell us a lot about the front office of both of these clubs. In the past few years, both have become known for their free-spending ‘projects’ as they attempt to move into the world’s elite, but the jury is still out on which has truly developed into the stronger team.
PSG wrapped up the Ligue 1 title with about three months to go, but haven’t yet taken their foot off the gas because of it. They handled a resurgent Chelsea side fairly easily in the Round of 16, and the prolific strike partnership of Ibrahimovic and Cavani will be licking their lips at the thought of a Man City side without their captain, Vincent Kompany; by all accounts, the Belgian will be forced to miss both legs of the quarterfinal with a recurring calf injury.
There have been times when the dynamic partnership of Agüero, Silva, and Touré have been able to bail City out of otherwise hopeless situations, but all three are having sub-par seasons and don’t look to be vastly improving on current form. Kevin De Bruyne was leading the team in assists (and second in goals) before his big injury, but he should be back in time for this tie. His return to the side could potentially be a silver lining for the Citizens, who will need all the help they can get against the world-class Thiago Silva at the back for PSG.
At the end of the day, I see the loss of Vincent Kompany as the deciding factor. On their day, City is capable of holding Ibra & co. relatively quiet for 180 minutes, but without their big Belgian at the back, that seems unlikely.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain defeats Manchester City 4-1 on aggregate.
What do you all think? Let me know in the comments below, or find me on Twitter if you’d like to discuss further.
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